running numbers
If only we lived in a parliamentary system, eh?
The latest CBS News poll pegs G-dub’s approval rating at an all-time low of 34%. How bad is that? If Bush were an NBA franchise, he’d be, like, the Toronto Raptors (bet you thought I was going to say the New York Knicks—but it’s almost statistically impossible to be that bad).
Only 30% approve of the President’s handling of Iraq, while two-thirds think the war is going badly—the worst assessment to date—and, not to tie the two things together or anything, but half now disapprove of how Bush is fighting the “war on terror.”
But the most interesting number to me—the most important number, I think—is in response to the question: “Does George Bush care about people like you?”
The “people like me” test is a telling one. Almost every research poll I do or discussion I have includes some version of the “people like me” question because it personalizes approval/disapproval to a point that makes it a better predictor of behavior. In this case, it gets to feelings about the administration’s effect on day-to-day life, while also exposing the absurdly important (but important all the same) question of whether or not you’d like to have lunch with the guy (or dinner, if you must). For the first time in his tenure, a majority of Americans feel Bush does not care about them (and fewer than one in five thinks he really cares).
If professional political pollsters think anything like I do, then a lot of Republican candidates are getting a memo this week, and it will read something like this: “Put daylight between you and the President. Highlight where you differ. Nothing to be gained from appearing to be a Bush loyalist.”
All that said, Democrats please note: it is not enough to sit by and watch the Republican’s scramble for new (higher? lower?) ground. And, it is not enough to just be “not Bush.” I’ve said it before, “not” brands are unappealing brands. Wishy-washy, un-motivating, not aspirational, unmemorable. So, boys and girls, get out there and show voters how, exactly, you do care about people like them. Got it?
(t.o.t.h. to kos for the heads up on the poll)
The latest CBS News poll pegs G-dub’s approval rating at an all-time low of 34%. How bad is that? If Bush were an NBA franchise, he’d be, like, the Toronto Raptors (bet you thought I was going to say the New York Knicks—but it’s almost statistically impossible to be that bad).
Only 30% approve of the President’s handling of Iraq, while two-thirds think the war is going badly—the worst assessment to date—and, not to tie the two things together or anything, but half now disapprove of how Bush is fighting the “war on terror.”
But the most interesting number to me—the most important number, I think—is in response to the question: “Does George Bush care about people like you?”
A lot: 17%
Some: 30%
Not much: 51%
The “people like me” test is a telling one. Almost every research poll I do or discussion I have includes some version of the “people like me” question because it personalizes approval/disapproval to a point that makes it a better predictor of behavior. In this case, it gets to feelings about the administration’s effect on day-to-day life, while also exposing the absurdly important (but important all the same) question of whether or not you’d like to have lunch with the guy (or dinner, if you must). For the first time in his tenure, a majority of Americans feel Bush does not care about them (and fewer than one in five thinks he really cares).
If professional political pollsters think anything like I do, then a lot of Republican candidates are getting a memo this week, and it will read something like this: “Put daylight between you and the President. Highlight where you differ. Nothing to be gained from appearing to be a Bush loyalist.”
All that said, Democrats please note: it is not enough to sit by and watch the Republican’s scramble for new (higher? lower?) ground. And, it is not enough to just be “not Bush.” I’ve said it before, “not” brands are unappealing brands. Wishy-washy, un-motivating, not aspirational, unmemorable. So, boys and girls, get out there and show voters how, exactly, you do care about people like them. Got it?
(t.o.t.h. to kos for the heads up on the poll)
posted by guy2k at 5:25 AM
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